No honor among thieves

A fantastical report is making the rounds that former Libyan dictator Muamar Gaddafi was betrayed by his erstwhile Syrian ally Bashir Assad, who gave Gaddafi’s cell phone number to French intelligence (in exchange for French help in curtailing sanctions against his own country).  Gaddafi was then killed not by a Libyan mob, but rather by a French agent who had infiltrated their ranks.  The execution order was given personally by Nikolas Sarkozy in order to prevent Gaddafi from exposing financial ties between the two.

Libya a new model for war?

John Hockenberry and Gideon Rose discuss the successful campaign to dislodge Ghaddafi in Libya and wonder whether this particular mix of forces – NATO airpower, intelligence and special forces leavening the mass of local forces – is the model for successful interventions.  Of course, this is exactly the mix that was also successful in Afghanistan 10 years ago.  Sometimes we forget how successful the initial toppling of the Taliban in Afghanistan was because we are still tied down in trying to stabilize the nation a decade later.   Such could well be the case in Libya, as well.  If we really want this model to be new and different, we should just leave Libya to the Libyans.  We can topple oppressive regimes for the locals, but building a new nation in the aftermath is their own work.    That would be a different approach.  It is also highly unlikely.  We Americans are too attached to our messianic approach to democratization.

The Obama Dominoes

I wrote over the weekend how the situation in Iraq is suddenly crumbling while the (what should have been) certain victory in Libya is also slipping away.   The Obama Administration is preparing the ground for a withdrawal from Afghanistan.  The Arab Spring has swept away our longtime ally Hosni Mubarak in Egypt.  Turkey is turning its back on secularism, and casting eyes toward our rivals Russia and China in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.  With American power and prestige in the region in obvious decline, even the linchpin of American strategy in the region – stalwart ally Saudi Arabia – is seeking an entente with our regional nemesis, Iran.  From Stratfor lst month:  Something extraordinary, albeit not unexpected, is happening in the Persian Gulf region. The United States, lacking a coherent strategy to deal with Iran and too distracted to develop one, is struggling to navigate Iraq’s fractious political landscape in search of a deal that would allow Washington to keep a meaningful military presence in the country beyond the end-of-2011 deadline stipulated by the current Status of Forces Agreement. At the same time, Saudi Arabia, dubious of U.S. capabilities and intentions toward Iran, appears to be inching reluctantly toward an accommodation with its Persian adversary.

Is this the end of the American Era in the Greater Middle East, or can the decline be reversed – or at least halted – by a renewed focus by the current Administration?   Perhaps, after being frustrated and dominated by the Republicans in Congress (and with domestic policy making hamstrung by the stagnant economy), the White House will seek to make a mark in foreign policy.    This is a pivotal moment for a United States that has been operating without a coherent grand strategy for half a decade.  Let’s hope the Administration siezes the opportunity before any more dominoes fall.

Iraq security situation crumbling; Libya operation failing

via BBC:

A top US adviser on Iraq has accused the US military of glossing over an upsurge in violence, just months before its troops are due to be withdrawn.

Iraq is more dangerous now than a year ago, said a report issued by the US Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction, Stuart W Bowen Junior.

He said the killing of US soldiers and senior Iraqi figures, had risen, along with attacks in Baghdad .

The report contradicts usually upbeat assessments from the US military.

It comes as Washington is preparing to withdraw its remaining 47,000 troops from Iraq by the end of the year, despite fears that the Iraqi security forces might not be ready to take over fully.

“Iraq remains an extraordinarily dangerous place to work,” Mr Bowen concluded in his quarterly report to Congress. “It is less safe, in my judgment, than 12 months ago.”

The report cited the deaths of 15 US soldiers in June – the bloodiest month for the American military in two years – but also said more Iraqi officials had been assassinated in the past few months than in any other recent period.

I though as recently as a month ago that Barack Obama would be able to campaign in 2012 as the president who got Bin Laden, who deposed Gaddafi, and who presided over the last act of a minor victory in Iraq.   Today, it looks like only the first is a sure thing.  The Libya operation, which should have been a certain victory of grinding attrition, is on the cusp of failure  (see also here, here, here and here)- an unbelievable outcome that seems to require almost willful mismanagement.    Suddenly, the Obama 2012 campaign looks to running on the rails of debt and defeat.   Given the structural advantage of the Democrats in the Electoral College, the powers of incumbency, and the very large Obama war chest, I had long assumed that re-election was inevitable.  As inevitable as a victory in Libya, perhaps?  But there is nothing so certain that it cannot be lost by an incompetent executive.

The end is near for Gaddafi

Austin Bay notes that the screws are getting tighter and tighter, day by day.

I have noted before that the fall of the Libyan dictator was always inevitable; the calculus of finances and firepower was inexorable.  It was foolish to predict the outcome would take “days, not weeks,” – a popular revolt in the Tripolitan bastion was unlikely – but the slow asphyxiation of the regime was a certainty.

Gaddafi seeking asylum in Algeria?

So reported the Petroleum Economist earlier this week.   The Dictator’s fall is believed by Westerner diplomats to be imminent.  Although the operation took far longer than promised at it’s start, and despite defiant statements issued elsewhere, this outcome was always close to inevitable.

EU tightens the screws; Gaddafi’s days wind down

Petroleum Economist has an exclusive story on the details of a new set of tougher, tighter sanctions against the Gaddafi regime in Libya.  The end for the dictator was always probably inevitable, as Professor Goldstein points out, but this should speed up the final outcome.